How many ACC Tournament wins does SMU need to make NCAA Tournament?

Photo courtesy of SMU Athletics

By Zach Carey

The SMU Mustangs open their ACC Tournament on Wednesday night against the Syracuse Orange. Following the team’s loss to Florida State to close out the regular season last Saturday, the Mustangs are stuck in a tough spot in their attempt to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in eight years. 

Wednesday night’s matchup with the Orange is, obviously, a must-win. With Syracuse ranked 132nd in the latest NET ranking, this is a Quad-3 game for SMU that the team cannot afford to lose to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive. 

Syracuse upset the Seminoles on Tuesday to advance to the first round against SMU. The Orange are an uninspiring team that finished the regular season at 7-13 in the ACC. Yet Adrian Autry’s group gave the Mustangs a run for their money just over a week ago when SMU escaped suffering its worst loss of the season via last-minute heroics from Keon Amrbose-Hylton.

Should the Mustangs handle their business late on Wednesday, they’ll earn a shot at their best win of the season against the Clemson Tigers in the quarterfinals. Alongside losses to FSU, Stanford, and Wake Forest in the last month, the biggest knock on SMU’s NCAA Tournament resume is the lack of quality wins. The Mustangs have zero wins against teams in the top-80 on KenPom and none against teams in the top-50 of ESPN’s Basketball Power Index. 

Beating Clemson – who is 15th in the BPI and 19th on KenPom – would be a meaningful step in the right direction and would catapult the Mustangs squarely back into the bubble discussion. That alone would likely not be enough, though. 

Should the Mustangs make the semifinals, they’d most likely face the Louisville Cardinals (who will play the winner of Wednesday’s game between California and Stanford). Pat Kelsey’s team sits 27th in the BPI and 23rd on KenPom. 

Would three wins over the likes of Cuse, Clemson, and Louisville be enough? Given the chaos of the bubble, that’s hard to say. Those results would put them near the line between the first four out and the last four in. 

The unfortunate reality is the most realistic scenario for SMU to make the NCAA Tournament is by winning it all in Charlotte this week. That’s a tall task especially considering the likely path of playing Clemson, then Louisville, and then Duke. 

Maybe three wins and an ACC Championship appearance do the trick if teams such as Oklahoma, Indiana, Ohio State, Texas, and others lose early this week. But this is the harsh reality that stems from the ACC being down and SMU dropping four of its last seven regular season games.