Undervalued Potential of Jaden Toombs

By Mike Gribanov

While Cam Boozer, Darryn Peterson and AJ Dybantsa have rightfully captured most of the early conversations surrounding the 2025 HS class and 2026 NBA Draft, they aren't by any means the only highly talented prospects about to graduate high school. The class doesn't feature particularly impressive lower end depth among pro-level talent but not only is the top 3 an already legendary group but the group of guys below them features several noteworthy players. Of course, in the NCAA, Arizona State's Jayden Quantainance has caught the eyes of evaluators. Despite being too young to be eligible for the 2025 draft, he has produced at a high level throughout most of the season. Readers that follow tennis shoe sponsored travel circuits during the spring and summer are probably familiar with players such as Koa Peat, Nate Ament, and Caleb Wilson. 

One of the ways this class has distinguished itself has been through the success of the top travel squads.  Boozer and the Nightrydas, Takeover, Soldiers, Indiana Elite and so on. To my understanding, winning all three of 15u, 16u and 17u championships in back to back to back seasons with a very similar core group of guys, has never been done before, at least as far back as recordings of such things take us. That is what Boozer and the Nightrydas managed to accomplish.

However, there is yet another extremely talented group of players that hold several parallels with Boozer's Nightrydas. Drive Nation’s 2025 group, while not quite as talented or dominant, also had an incredibly impressive three year run. Just like Boozer and Nightrydas, this roster was built around the son of a former NBA player. That player being Jermaine O’Neal Jr for Drive. And just like Cam's smooth power and clever decision making has led to his impact being underrated, so is the case with Drive's leader: Jaden Toombs. In fact at the 15u level, Drive was arguably the Nightrydas biggest challenger. Had they been able to keep guard Jordan Lowery around, perhaps that would've been the case in 17u.

Either way, Jaden Toombs is an interesting player, especially when it comes to testing and demonstrating my prospect evaluation philosophy. For those totally unfamiliar with Toombs, below are his per 70 possession stats from NIKE EYBL 17u.

JADEN TOOMBS PER 70 POSSESSION STATS IN NIKE EYBL 17u

Leading one of the top 5 teams in last season's 17u division, Toombs averaged approximately (I don't have super reliable possession totals off hand) 20 points, 11.5 rebounds, 2.7 stocks per 70 possessions with a 57.6 eFG% and assist-turnover ratio of over 1.5. Listed at 6 '10 with a burly frame, Toombs absolutely dominated in the paint and on the glass, not just in the 17u division but throughout his EYBL career. He also consistently displayed excellent fundamentals, with his back to the basket footwork and a high level understanding of the game on both ends. He has easily been among the more valuable class of 2025 players in the country.

Not to mention, Toombs' 5/27/2007 birthdate not only makes him one of the younger pro prospects in the 2025 class but wouldn't have his age at all out of place among the top rated players in the 2026 class. Toombs was also chosen to be part of the 12-man, USA 17u team. A group that dominated in an unparalleled fashion in the FIBA junior world championship and has garnered mythical status in youth basketball circles almost immediately upon stepping on the floor, led by elite individual talents like the Boozer twins, AJ Dybantsa & Tyran Stokes.   

Surely with that production, impact and youth basketball legacy, Toombs would be an easy shoe in (not a Nike pun) for a top 10-15 ranking in the 2025 class? At the very least, he is a no-brainer 5-star without much hesitation, right? So why then does Toombs currently sit at 55th on on3.com, 48th on 247, 52nd on ESPN and all the way at 70 on Rivals? Why have the 4 major recruiting service rankings "shunned" Toombs so much? Well, they aren't totally clueless or off base, there is actually a decent logic behind his position. 

At a glance Toombs' production is basically unimpeachable but upon a closer look at the film and even statistical indicators, some cracks do begin to show for him. I estimated Toombs to have played 1143 possessions for Drive Nation 17u last year, yet despite his size and interior-heavy offensive profile, he finished the year with just 4 made dunks according to Synergy. That's just 0.24 dunks made per 70 possessions. Cam Boozer made 33 dunks in EYBL 17u, Tyran Stokes had 46 and AJ Dybantsa had 54. Koa Peat has just 15 games logged in Adidas' 3SSB 17u last year, as opposed to 20+ for Toombs, Boozer, Stokes and Dybantsa. Yet,  Peat still finished with 21 made dunks.

This lack of run-jump athleticism is apparent on tape as well. Toombs can be quite flat footed and struggles quickly changing directions, accelerating or getting off his feet with pop. Underwhelming “combine” athleticism could be overlooked provided other strengths can offset the projection of the player in question. However, Toombs shot just 65% from the free throw line in 17u. Being listed somewhere between 6 '9 and 6' 10, he doesn't appear to have quite enough size to be considered a traditional 5-man when looking ahead to the NBA. When I have been asked what exactly his role will be at that level, I have admittedly struggled to come up with a convincing response. Still, while I certainly understand the rationale of the recruiting service rankings, I remain high on Toombs. 

PROSPECT EVALUATION PHILOSOPHY INTERLUDE

I am always happy seeing people covering the process they use to create their player rankings. Whether that be a draft board, recruiting class or something else. However, I noticed that many recruiting services leave out a major piece of the process in these explanations. They talk about watching games in person or on tape, they talk about long term projection against current ability, they talk about tiers and so forth. However, few to none ever touch on the archetypes they value, talents they look for, the way they evaluate shot mechanics or functional athletic traits. I understand that some of these may be considered so-called "trade secrets" that they don't wish to publicize but the implication and tone of many of these articles often comes off as if "there is only one way to evaluate, we already know that way and everyone uses it". The differences in the rankings would therefore be mainly a product of the different games the person ranking happened to witness. There is no such thing as a better or worse eye test. Only those that put in more time and less.

Figuring out which “on court occurrences”(i.e. Dunks, steals, quick first steps, agile hip turns etc) we should value and how much, is far more important to me. It is worthy of considerable amounts of discussion and pondering.  Even on NBA Draft Twitter people ask "have you seen player X?" which to me is often the wrong question. Even if I have seen every game Player X has ever played, what does it help if I, for example, don't understand the rules of basketball? 

This is the broad way that I seem to differ from many other evaluators. However, when it comes to Toombs, a couple more specific parts of my process really stand out. That being my tendency to value current production and age as two of the larger pieces of my equation. The basic logic is as follows, the best players born in 2007 at 18 years old, TEND TO be the best players born in 2007 when they are all 26, 27 and 28 and in their basketball prime. Of course, this isn't by any means strictly true but I do stick a lot closer to this idea than most. 

Still, even within this paradigm, Toombs is somewhat extreme. His lack of a clear projectable role at the highest level is a fair question to ask and one that doesn't have an immediately satisfying response. To some degree this DOES hurt Toombs in my eyes. However, I do have a response to this concern broadly, even though it isn't incredibly satisfying. 

While we should absolutely consider archetype, contextual fit and role when projecting prospects to the next level, I believe that part of the process to be significantly overvalued by most. Especially when we are talking about someone like Toombs, who technically still hasn't finished his high school career and is somewhat young for his graduating class. Players very often develop in unexpected ways. Even players that seem to have a clear NBA role at a similar age, often end up developing in a much different way than expected. Tyrese Haliburton is one good example but there are endless others. 

Just last year, I had a couple of scouts and coaches bring up the "lack of translatable archetype" criticism in regards to Cooper Flagg. On a loaded Montverde team that was blowing out every opponent they faced and relied mainly on their defensive talent, Flagg wasn't putting up off the charts offensive volume. My colleagues wondered if a forward whose main value comes on defense is the type of player that will be worth a #1 selection in a good draft. At the time, I gave a similar answer to the paragraph above - that I am not sure how Flagg will develop exactly but I am highly confident that he will find a way to be incredibly valuable.

Good players just find a way. However, here is the twist - I think I know what that way might end up being for Toombs. 

Before that though, it is absolutely worth discussing Toombs’ very good to excellent awareness on both ends of the floor. He stands out even more with his high “capacity for mental fortitude”. A phrase I “invented” while scouting Day’ron Sharpe as a freshman at UNC. The potential comparison between him and Toombs is pretty clear. Especially for those familiar with Sharpe’s considerable athletic improvement at a similar age. Toombs is similarly physical and powerful around the rim. He isn’t afraid to mix it up fighting for position and embraces contact. 

However, Toombs’ feel based abilities like passing, court awareness and understanding of opponent tendencies are all ahead of where Sharpe was at a similar age. 

Toombs has a knack for footwork and technique and despite not knowing much about him off the court, I feel confident saying that he is a guy that studies the scouting report and understands opponent tendencies. He reads situations quickly and isn’t afraid to take risks for a rewarding pay off. At times Toombs can be a bit sloppy as a ball handler and playmaker, leading to some silly turnovers. 

Even so, Toombs really understands how to pass out of the post and times his teammate’s cuts to the basket well. He also moves off the ball well and sets a good screen. His ball handling has shown some mild promise. One of the successful developmental pathways that seems as the most likely outcome for Toombs sees him become a short roll passer, as he leans into maximizing his feel and instincts as a player. 

There is one positive outcome that seemingly has an even higher likelihood of becoming reality for Toombs as he continues to grow as a player. Jump shooting is one skillset/talent/attribute that is especially tough to project for players under 21 years old. Many guys often get considerably better as jump shooters in their 20s, making leaps that are almost impossible to anticipate. At the same time, other prospects may appear to be elite shooters or shot makers at lower levels but struggle to translate those abilities to either D1 College ball or the pros or both. 

Combined with the fact that productive players tend to make things work and adjust to various environments, often in highly unexpected ways - I always took note of Toombs touch in short range back to the basket situations and the rare off the catch attempts that he took earlier in his high school career.

However, it wasn’t until this season at Dynamic that Toombs really came on to my radar as a shooting big man. Below are his stats on “touch” shots. It seems to be the case that players that exhibit soft touch on non-rim attempts, including free-throws, tend to have more potential as shooters, even if they aren’t taking many “traditional jump shots”.

While the mechanics aren’t textbook by any stretch, seeing Toombs hit pick and pop threes in the City of Palms HS basketball tournament back in December really opened my eyes to his development as a floor spacer and perimeter weapon.

Here is Toombs statistical history on some “touch” shots that have been tracked by Synergy Sports throughout his high school career.

There are only about 240 minutes of statistics available from his senior season but the improvement appears legitimate. Is it a guarantee that Toombs will become a high level floor spacer in the NBA? Of course not but this surprising development is yet another example of the way productive prospects tend to ameliorate and adapt their style of play as they move up in level. 

Another noteworthy chart courtesy of Synergy Sports is below.

SSQ or Synergy Shot Quality is a metric that measures the expected outcome of various shot types and estimates their relative efficiency compared to one another. Limiting the attempts to only the bottom 20 percentile of SSQ attempts, there were 79 players in NIKE EYBL 17u last year who had at least 40 field goal attempts. Here are the top 5 in FG% on those shots among that group.

McKenney, Jones and Reece are widely acknowledged as 3 of the better shot makers in the class. However Toombs place on the list may seem strange to some. However, when considering his tendency and efficiency to take hook shots and runners, as well as other short range attempts outside the charge circle, it starts to make a lot more sense. 

After all Day’ron Sharpe is 13th among 4th year players in total on court plus minus and 17th in BPM in the last two seasons combined. The +/- is especially impressive considering Sharpe plays for the struggling Brooklyn Nets. In these two seasons so far, Sharpe has an on/off of +10.2 per 100 possessions! Greg Monroe is perhaps more analogous in some ways, as Toombs doesn’t quite have Sharpe’s vertical pop but is far ahead of Day’ron when it comes to shooting touch and offensive awareness at a similar developmental stage. While Monroe is negatively viewed by some due to some late career difficulties, he is still 7th among players drafted in 2010 in BPM and 10th in NBA regular season minutes played. If we average those 4 ranks, Toombs is likely to end up somewhere around number 12 in future redrafts, further solidifying his current status firmly in the “underrated” category. His shooting touch displays a potential avenue for Toombs’ growth as a player and softens the concerns around his archetype as a pro prospect.

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(Featured Image Credit: Slam HS Hoops)