What does SMU basketball need to do to make NCAA Tournament?

Photo courtesy of SMU Athletics

By Zach Carey

The SMU Mustangs’ thrilling comeback win over the Syracuse Orange on Tuesday night kept them alive in March. Keon Amrbose-Hylton’s put-back tip gave SMU a 77-75 lead with just a few seconds left on the clock. When JJ Starling’s last-second three-pointer bounced off the backboard and rolled out, Mustangs fans everywhere breathed a sigh of relief. 

On senior night, SMU relied on six total double-digit scorers to fend off the Orange. Kario Oquendo led the team with 16 points on 6-for-11 shooting including a 3-for-6 mark from deep.

Boopie Miller’s return to the lineup was particularly valuable as the junior guard scored 11 points and dished out five assists in his first game in three weeks. Freshman center Samet Yigitoglu was his typically imposing self on the low block, registering 12 points, four steals, and a block before fouling out in the final minutes. 

The Mustangs’ late-game defense was, ultimately, what made the difference on Tuesday as SMU held Syracuse without a field goal for the last 5:12 of action. Some poor free throw shooting from the Orange certainly helped. Yet the Mustangs made life difficult for Syracuse and forced them to convert at the line, consequently limiting them to just three points in the final five minutes. 

Surviving against Syracuse not only kept a damning blemish off the Mustangs’ resume, but it also keeps them in a favorable position in the conference. With the Mustangs sitting in the “Next Four Out” category for most bracketologists, they need to win as much as possible and they need help. Beating Florida State on Saturday is an absolute must-win game. Then, their seeding in next week’s ACC Tournament will determine what more is possible.

SMU now stands 22-8 on the season and 13-6 in the ACC. Crucially, Tuesday’s win means the Mustangs are still in the hunt for the fourth seed and the double bye in next week’s ACC Tournament. 

If SMU wins against Florida State in Tallahassee on Saturday and North Carolina (who’s also 13-6 in the ACC) falls to Duke, then the Mustangs would earn the fourth seed. 

If SMU wins and UNC wins (which seems unlikely), the Tar Heels would get the double bye because they hold the tiebreaker due to their win over the Mustangs back in early January. 

If SMU loses and UNC wins, North Carolina would obviously get the four seed. Then SMU’s fate would be determined by Wake Forest (12-7) and Stanford (11-7) with the Mustangs having lost to both teams this season. If they ended up tied with one or both of those team’s, SMU would fall to the sixth or seventh seed.

Should both UNC and SMU fall on Saturday, things get complicated as that could also potentially bring Wake Forest and Stanford back into the picture. The Demon Deacons host Georgia Tech on Saturday. Meanwhile, Stanford plays at Notre Dame on Wednesday before heading to Louisville on Saturday. 

If those teams win out while UNC and SMU lose on Saturday, the four teams would be in a four-way tie for fourth place. If one of those teams wins out while the Tar Heels and Mustangs lose, then there’d be a three-way tie. 

In the four-way tie scenario, SMU would fall all the way to the seventh seed because the team is winless against the other three teams. In a three-way tie situation with Wake, the Mustangs would be the sixth seed. In a three-way tie including Stanford, they’d also be the sixth seed. 

Bottom line, for SMU to earn the double bye, they need to win against Florida State and they need UNC to lose to Duke. In any other scenario, the Mustangs would be seeded anywhere from fifth to seventh. 

The value in SMU being seeded fourth is real. First off, it would mean the Mustangs are likely to avoid any potential eliminating loss against a double-digit seed. It would set up a probable opportunity for a quality win against a team such as North Carolina or Wake Forest in the quarterfinals. Then, should SMU win that game, the team would get a shot at the best team in the country in Duke

Maybe falling to sixth or seventh would be beneficial because SMU would be able to avoid Duke until the championship game and would have the opportunity to stack up more wins. Realistically, though, SMU needs more quality victories on its resume. The team is 46th in the Net Ranking. But, with zero Quad 1 wins, the Mustangs need to make a splash. Beating Duke and UNC – as daunting as that sounds – would probably do the trick.

Of course, there’s also the autobid that comes with winning the tournament. That probably entails beating Duke anyway, though. 

Other teams to keep an eye on as conference tournaments approach are San Diego State, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Boise State, Xavier, Nebraska, Texas, Cincinnati, and Dayton. UNC and Wake Forest are also bubble teams. SMU will also be hoping few, if any, bid stealers come to the party.

No matter what, these next two weeks are shaping up to be a fascinating stretch for SMU men’s basketball as the program aims to qualify for its first NCAA Tournament in eight years. We’ll have you covered across this stretch on Locker Room Access, so stay tuned to the blog and join the conversation on our forum.